Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 19 ¼ cents higher ($5.79 ¾), July 16 cents higher ($5.62) & Dec 9 ¼ cents higher ($4.94 ¾)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 757.0 K T. old crop vs. 500-900 K T. expected – 50.0 K T. new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Old crop corn exhibits unusual strength ahead of tomorrow’s supply-demand update. Cumulative weekly export sales have now exceeded the most recent sales projection for the year. It’s my opinion the today’s trade is dialing in a more dramatic drop in the old crop carryout vs. the average guess of just a 115 M bu. decline. Interior cash corn markets continue to be quite strong as processors and exporters vie for bushels. The season’s high on the May/July corn spread was 20 ¼ cent inverse. Today we traded at a 19 cent inverse after trading at a 12 ¾ cent inverse yesterday. The July/Dec has improved by 20 cents over the past three days.

Going forward the big question for tomorrow’s trade is whether or not the USDA gives us supporting numbers for today’s bulge higher. It’s my idea that if they just match the average trade guess for carryout,1.387 B bu., we may be in line for some profit taking. We have to remember the large speculator & managed funds are holding some near massive long positions.  What should stay firm going forward are the spreads/cash basis as well as the new crop.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/09

July Corn : $5.50 – $5.70 (?)

Dec Corn: $4.85 – $5.00 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.