Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 7 ¾ cents lower ($7.32 ¼), July 6 ¼ cents higher ($6.79 ½) & Dec ¾ cent lower ($5.63)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 2.139 M T. vs. 1.100-2.150 M T. expected

Flat price corn zooms higher in the Sunday session. Profit taking, led by the nearby spread (May/July), occurs with the onset of the day session. The July forward spreads managed to maintain a bullish bias. Weekly corn export inspections came in at the high end of expectations allowing July corn to maintain the plus side for the remainder of the session. SovEcon talks about a record Ukraine corn crop for the coming year. The pace of new crop corn planting is expected to be in the range of 44%-46% completed (46% reported). Adding the support for July corn are ideas that the 2nd season Brazilian corn crop has already lost 10.0 M T. of production. On April 8th CONAB pegged 2nd season corn production at 82.6 M T. There are ideas that if the current dryness in Brazil continues production could be cut another 10.0 M T. The latest COT report from the CFTC suggests that the April 20th to April 27th rally was led by commercial short covering not new spec buying. Open interest in this time frame declined by 52 K contracts.

It remains my thought corn prices will hold together (if one can past the volatility), both old crop and new crop. Old crop corn is being tied to the possibility of dramatic Brazilian corn losses while the new crop will hold on until we get a better handle on additional planted acres.

Daily Support & Resistance – 05/04

July Corn : $6.65 – $6.92

Dec Corn: $5.48 – $5.78

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.