May Corn closed 8 ½ cents higher ($7.53 ¼), July 11 ¾ cents higher ($7.08 ½) & Dec 24 ¼ cents higher ($6.04 ¾)
USDA Corn Export Announcements – 184.1 K T. new crop sold to Mexico – 147.3 K T. sold to Unknown (45.7 K T. old crop, 101.6 K T. new crop) – China cancels 140.0 K T. old crop
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 952 K bpd vs. 945 K week ago – Stocks – 20.4 M bbls vs. 19.7 M week ago
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-600 K T. expected
The big feature today was new crop corn going to battle vs. new crop soybeans in an effort to garner additional acres this spring. I think what started the new crop advancing vs. the old crop was the old crop corn cancellation to China. In the early going of the day session old crop stumbled a bit on this news and that prompted profit taking in the bull spreads. The cancellation to China doesn’t make the old crop corn market bearish as the bigger issue at hand here is the state of the 2nd season corn crop in Brazil. It is still not seeing anything that looks like sustained relief for the ongoing dryness. In summation old crop corn is still biased to move higher while the new crop is giving us a concerted effort to garner more acres.
Interior cash corn markets don’t back off despite the profit taking in the bull spreads. I just think the trade’s focus has seen a bit of shift to the new crop. Next Wednesday the USDA will give us their first look at the new crop S&D; I have to think it won’t be bearish because they will have to use the March 31st acres and trendline yield.
My technical look at July corn still suggests $7.38 as an initial target for the current run higher. Now that Dec corn is in new contract high ground its initial target, based on last week’s attempt to correct, is the $6.23 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/06
July Corn : $6.95 – ???
Dec Corn: $5.90 – ???
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