Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 4 cents higher ($6.59 ¼), Sept 6 ¼ cents lower ($5.71 ¼) & Dec 9 ¼ cents lower ($5.57)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.485 M T. vs. 1.200-1.625 M T. expected

After trading lower to sharply lower (down nearly 27 cents) Sunday night the day session brought us rebound in prices (just shy of unchanged). After an assessment of weekend rains the perceptions were that some of the driest areas in the west northwest really did not get that much. There is more rain in the forecasts for later this week but not for the northwestern reaches (the Dakotas). What rain that is in the forecast for later this week kept corn prices in the minus column for the rest of the day.

Corn ratings are expected to show another decline this week. Trade ideas are suggesting 66% GE (-2%). The USDA reports the national corn rating is now 65% GE (-3%).

As we move forward to the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks update on the 30th weather considerations will dominate most of the day-to-day trade. Given the rebound in the old crop/ new crop spreads once the index fund rolling was done suggests the potential for a bullish Stocks report. As far as the updated Acreage report it will be how much and where. I say where because if there are corn acreage increases in the Dakotas it will almost be moot given conditions up there. One thing I’m sure of is that volatility is not going away anytime soon and hard breaks such as we saw last Thursday and again last night will be hard to sustain without more answers.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/22

July Corn: $6.45 – $6.80  

Dec Corn: $5.48 – $5.85

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.