Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 39 ½ cents higher ($6.69 ¼), Sept 15 ¾ cents higher ($5.45 ¾) & Dec 16 cents higher ($5.33)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 993.9 K T. vs. 950 K – 1.350 M T. expected

Highlights of the USDA Corn Supply-DemandUS old crop – increased feed usage by 25 M bu., lowered carryout by 25 M bu. – US new crop – lowered carryin by 25 M bu., increased production by 175 M bu., raised feed usage by 25 M bu., raised exports by 50 M bu., increased carryout by 75 M bu. – World old crop – lowered carryout 740 K – World new crop – increased carryout 1.77 M T.

Trade ideas have the nation’s corn crop stabilizing from its recent slide. Expectations are to see national rating improve to 65% GE. The USDA reports the nation’s corn crop is now rated 65% GE (+1%). The USDA goes on to say 26% of the nation’s corn crop is going through pollination vs. 30% 5-year average.

Based on expectations I thought today’s corn report actually had a bearish slant to it. So why the rally? Forecasts are calling for a return to hot & dry for the Dakotas and Minnesota. Remember that these three states accounted for 1.2 M of the 1.5 M acre increase. It is also my thought the corn market caught some strength from the wheat market. Given today’s wheat report cheap feed wheat in relation to corn may become a thing of the past.

Friday’s challenge of the late May low followed by today’s price action is trying to signal we may have gone low enough for the time being. As I mentioned earlier a good portion of the Corn Belt will be going through pollination over the next 1-2 weeks and a fair amount of this area will be seeing near ideal conditions; moderate temps with sufficient moisture. The wild cards will be the Dakotas and Minnesota as to how they go though pollination given their renewed forecasts for less than desirable conditions. I’m not sure we have a lot on the upside to look forward to over the near term; maybe something between $5.40 and $5.50.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/13

Sept Corn: $5.34 – $5.52  

Dec Corn: $5.22 – $5.44

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