Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.45 ¾), Dec 5 cents lower ($5.46 ¾) & March 5 ¼ cents lower ($5.55)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of July 30th – 1.013 M bpd vs. 1.014 M week ago – Stocks – 22.6 M bbls vs. 22.7 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. -150 + 200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Flat price corn comes under pressure today stemming from lower wheat prices as well as lower energy prices. The weekly ethanol grind continues to tail off while stocks are building. Export sales in the morning are not expected to be any great shakes. Yesterday afternoon we saw the first of publicized private crop size estimates. This one suggested 176.9 bpa leading to a crop size of 14.945 B bu. If the USDA adopted a figure like this and left the recent demand data unchanged it would suggest a new crop carryout in the 1.200 B bu. vicinity. This will not happen. It is my opinion the USDA will not give a carryout figure that low this early in the season. They will either hike the old crop carryout and/or trim the new crop demand if not both.

I’m still with the frame of mind the flat price corn market will continue to be a trading range market at least up until August 12th. Dec corn has trade in a 24 cent range for the past 7 days; $5.41 to $5.65. Going forward to the 12th Dec corn should be able to realize support in the $5.40-$5.35 area and realize resistance in the $5.65-$5.70 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/05

Sept Corn: $5.39 – $5.56

Dec Corn: $5.40 – $5.57

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