Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.67), Dec 14 cents higher ($5.73 ¼) & March 12 ¾ cents higher ($5.79 ¾)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 377.6 K T. old crop vs. -100 + 200 K T. expected – 601.8 K T. new crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected

Highlights of USDA Corn Production/Supply-Demand ReportUS old crop – increased domestic usage by 40 M bu., cut exports by 75 M bu., increased carryout by 35 M bu. – US new crop – increased carryin by 35 M bu., lowered yield by 4.9 bpa, lowered production by 415 M bu., cut domestic usage by 90 M bu., cut exports by 100 M bu., lowered carryout by 90 M bu. – S-T-U now 8.4% vs. 9.6% last month vs. 7.4 % last season – World – lowered new crop production by 8.68 M T. – lowered new crop carryout by 6.55 M T.

Needless to say the corn report from the USDA was received as rather bullish; production lower than expected and carryout lower than expected. The only drawback was the cut to demand. It was a bit surprising to see such a dramatic cut to yield without a reduction in harvested acres (this will probably come later). With that said it would not surprise me to see a cut in harvested acres on subsequent reports but with slight hikes in yield. August is/was a great finishing months for a good portion of the corn crop.

After today’s technical performance we could easily see some short term backing and filling but a bit longer term it would not surprise me to see the flat price try to grind  up to the $6.00 level (Dec). Given what we have I’m not sure the market is worth much more than that. AS of this writing I’m seeing some good looking trend line resistance up towards the $6.10 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/13

Sept Corn: $5.58 – $5.78

Dec Corn: $5.65 – $5.85

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