Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 6 ¾ cents higher ($5.51 ¼), Dec 6 ½ cents higher ($5.51 ¾) & March 6 ½ cents higher ($5.58 ¾)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 8/20 – 933 K bpd vs. 973 K week ago – Stocks – 21.2 M bbls vs. 21.6 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. -100 + 250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Flat price corn extends its retracement of last week’s Thursday/Friday sell-off. The sell-off started on Thursday morning from the $5.63 level and ended Monday morning at $5.29 ½. At one point today Dec corn retraced 26 cents of that break before some late selling materialized. I did not see a lot of new news to justify today’s rally. The weekly ethanol grind continues to edge lower despite what appears to be improving margins. Brazil announces some ethanol being exported to California. US energy prices continue to improve from last week’s swoon. Some will tout Monday afternoon’s lower than expected crop rating for today’s rally. Some will tout “oats know”. Personally I think we may have seen some export business done today as the midday quote at the gulf showed some better values. Tomorrow is export sales day; middle of the road amounts are expected. For the time being I will maintain the idea Dec corn is a trading range affair with $5.20 to $5.10 on the downside and $5.60 to $5.70 on the top side.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/26

Dec Corn: $5.42 – $5.58

March Corn: $5.49 – $5.65

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.