Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 12 ¼ cents lower ($4.95 ¾), Dec 13 ¼ cents lower ($5.10 ¾) & March 12 ¾ cents lower ($5.20 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 275.8 K T. vs. 125-550 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 59% GE (-1%) vs. 60% expected vs. 61% year ago – Dented – 74% vs. 69% 5-year ave – Mature – 21% vs. 19% 5-year ave

It was not a very encouraging day for those that are trying to be friendly to US corn futures. Once again the summer lows, $5.07 and $5.00, remain in the sellers gunsights. The rationale behind today’s sell-off are many; the gulf still not operational for export, the idea the crop is getting bigger while demand is lagging, a strong US Dollar, weak energy prices. The USDA is scheduled to update production and demand this coming Friday, the 10th. Yield is expected to increase by 1.2 bpa to 175.8. Harvested acres are expected to increase by 600 K. Production is expected to increase by 190 M bu. The old crop carryout is expected to increase 52 M bu. and the new crop carryout is expected to increase by 140 M Bu. I realize some of these numbers don’t add up (increased acres and a higher yield suggest another 20 M bu. of production & the increased old crop carryout should add additional bu. to total supply) but we have to remember they are just average trade guesses.

As I mentioned earlier the June and July summer lows remain in sellers’ sights. I thought $5.10 would be low enough ahead of the USDA on Friday but here we are with still 3 days to go.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/08

Dec Corn: $5.07 (?) – $5.18

March Corn: $5.17 (?) – $5.28

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.