Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 6 cents lower ($4.96 ¾), Dec 4 ¼ cents lower ($5.13 ¼) & March 4 ½ cents lower ($5.22)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 138.1 K T. vs. 250-600 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE (-1%) vs. 59% expected vs. 60% year ago – Dented – 87% vs. 81% 5-year ave – Mature – 37% vs. 31%-year ave – Harvested – 4% vs. 5% expected vs. 5% 5-year ave

Flat price corn registers an inside day of Friday’s short covering rally. The impending harvest was most responsible for the day’s lower prices. Yes, weekly export inspections were pretty feeble looking but with the Gulf barely operating this data should not be taken as a surprise. The gulf is getting back to operational but it is not going to happen overnight. Most are conceding the rally on Friday was due to a short term state of oversold as there was really nothing friendly about the numbers form the USDA; US supply gains 316 M bu. while demand only increases by 150 M bu. The global scenario was probably even more bearish looking as supply gained 17.38 M T. while demand only improved by 4.38 M T. As far as I’m concerned the best that can be hoped for going forward is that the corn market develops into a trading range affair between Friday’s lows and something closer to the $5.30-$5.40 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/14

Dec Corn: $5.05 – $5.20 ($5.24)

March Corn: $5.14 – $5.29 ($5.33)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.