Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 2 ¼ cents lower ($5.36 ¾), March 2 ½ cents lower ($5.44 ½) & May 2 ¾ cents lower ($5.49)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 370.4 K T. old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Sept Corn Quarterly Stocks – 1.236 B bu. vs. 1.155 B expected

2020/21 US Corn Production – 14.111 B bu. vs. 14.173 B expected vs. 14.182 B in August

Despite last year’s corn crop being overstated by 71 M bu. it looks like the USDA is going to peg last year’s carryout (this year’s carryin) at or near 1.236 B bu., an increase of nearly 50 M bu. This has to be a result of lower usage in the feed sector and some late export due to Hurricane Ida. Couple this with the oncoming harvest and there was no way the flat price could hold the morning’s earlier challenge of the $5.50 level. Overall, however, it was not a bad performance as it seemed corn prices were caught between bullish looking wheat prices and bearish looking soybean prices. On a side note weekly corn export sales were a shade above puny.

Interior cash corn prices (basis) appears to have stabilized. I can’t help but notice that just 2 days ago Cedar Rapids was 10 cents over and now they are 30 cents over. I have to wonder if this is a result of yields not being as good as previously thought just 3 weeks ago. Hopefully the USDA will shed a better light on this October 12th.

The technical look after today’s price performance, an outside day involving new highs for the current rally while closing a bit easier, suggests we may have gone high enough for the near term. It has been thought since late August that the $5.50 level represents some formidable resistance. The other side of that is $5.20 represents support. Wouldn’t be surprised If we trade inside today’s range for the next number of days.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/01

Dec Corn: $5.30 – $5.45

March Corn: $5.38 – $5.53

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.