Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 10 ½ cents lower ($5.22 ½), March 10 ¼ cents lower ($5.32) & May 10 cents lower ($5.37 ½)

Weekly Con Export Inspections% last month vs. – 746.2 K T. vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Progress / Condition – 60% GE (+1%) vs. 59% expected vs. 61% year ago – Mature – 94% vs. 86% 5-year ave – Harvested – 41% vs. 42% expected vs. 31% 5-year ave

USDA increases corn production by 23 M bu., increases yield by 0.2 bpa, leaves harvested acres unchanged and raises US carryout by 92 M bu. The World carryout was increased by 4.11 M T. The USDA lowered US usage by 20 M bu.; lowered domestic usage by 45 M bu. and increased exports by 25 M bu. The net result of all this was bearish as few in the trade were expecting numbers this large. Yield was expected to decline fractionally not increase. Stocks-to-usage jumps to 10.14% vs. 9.5% last month vs. 8.3% last year.

Based on what the USDA had to say and the resulting price action it looks like we’ve got some downside probing on our hands. $5.15 – $5.10 will be the first level of support followed by the $5.00 level. I’m not sure we are any worse than the latter at least until we see what kind of crop the Southern Hemisphere has. With that said be prepared for more trading range type price action but at slightly lower levels vs. where we’ve been for the past few weeks. In other words chasing the inter-day extremes could lead to frustration.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/13

Dec Corn: $5.13 – $5.32

March Corn: $5.24 – $5.41

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.