Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 4 ½ cents higher ($5.16 ¾), March 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.25 ¾) & May 3 cents higher ($5.31)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 10/08 – 1.032 M bpd vs. 978 K week ago – Stocks – 19.8 M bbls vs. 19.9 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.600 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Flat price corn comes bouncing on Thursday buoyed by stabilizing to firming cash markets, improving world interest (Turkey and S. Korea), minor harvest delays, a softening US Dollar and really strong weekly ethanol data. To be grinding to make 1.0 M bpd and have stocks decline suggests really good demand. Adding to today’s bounce was a continued strong energy market and shades of a short term oversold following the past two days of declines. After this week’s scattered harvest delays the Corn Belt will clear out by early next week and forecasts suggest clear weather with normal temps in the central and eastern regions and above normal temps west.

Interior basis levels appear to have bottomed out for now. The Gulf is trying to show improvement. Corn spreads within the current year were noticeably firmer today. I have to think the recent break has attracted a fair amount of end-user interest, both domestically and internationally.

After the last two days of declines the flat price was due for a technical bounce. Unfortunately I have to emphasize “bounce” as that is all I see for the near term. The best that can be hoped for is the development of a new trading range between $5.00 and $5.30 (Dec).

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/15

Dec Corn: $5.10 – $5.23

March Corn: $5.19 – $5.32

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.