Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.79), March 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.87) & May 10 ¾  cents higher ($5.90 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 619.3 K T. vs. 475-900 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop ProgressHarvested – 74% vs. 75% expected vs. 66% ave

Corn futures make new highs for the rally that started on October 14th. Prices have now rallied 75 cents from the October 13th low to today’s high. A combination of strong domestic demand (ethanol) and surging higher wheat prices are responsible. Personally I’ll add that I think both the Chinese corn crop and the US corn crop are not as big as recent suggestions would lead us to believe. For what it is worth I did not think weekly export inspections were a big deal one way or the other. Argentina talks about a record corn crop potential. We’ll see that La Nina has to say about that. They did have good rains this past weekend.

Interior cash corn markets have a steady to higher look to them. It appears that select river locations are now having to compete with the processor.  The Gulf basis appears to be a touch easier at midday. Corn spreads within the current crop year ran mostly steady while the year-to-year spreads showed a bullish bias.

As much as I thought $5.80 would be high enough when we were trading $5.60 I may have to suggest something closer to the $6.00 mark. I realize we have a strong domestic market and a so-so export market. The surge in wheat prices has added a lot to the recent rally. I usually get suspect of early in the week rallies and today is no different. Flat price is developing a modest degree of overbought so that would be in keeping with the idea we spend the next couple of days backing and filling some of the recent rally.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/02

Dec Corn: $5.68 – $5.86 (?)

March Corn: $5.76 – $5.94 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.