Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 6 cents lower ($5.73), March 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.81 ¼) & May 5 cents lower ($5.85 ½)

Up on Monday, down on Tuesday. Today was a day of correction after registering new highs for the current rally Monday night. Was there anything in particular behind the day of correction? Some will say the stronger US dollar, easing wheat prices or just due for a technical correction. If you are looking for something directly aimed at the corn market I did not see it. Personally I’ll go with the technical correction as the recent price action had attained a modest degree of overbought. That’s what happens when you are higher 11 days out of the past 13. We probably saw some profit taking based on the idea we could see a higher output from the USDA next Tuesday. A prominent FCM with a strong research department is suggesting a national corn yield of 177.7 bpa vs. the USDA last month at 176.5.

Interior corn basis levels read mixed on the day suggesting we’ve seen a pick-up in cash movement. The midday posting at the gulf reads steady to soft. Corn spreads within the current crop year eased from their recent narrowing as this goes along with he flat price selling. It is interesting to note the July22/Dec22 corn spread continued to show a bullish bias despite all of the talk about inputs being extremely high priced for next year’s crop.

It would not take much to see additional easing over the next day or two given the recent run higher. You can be sure the trade will be expecting another stout ethanol grind on Thursday. Exports, however, remain slack looking. Wheat prices and energy prices will continue to have a say in our day to day price action. Personally I’m looking for more corrective type price action into Thursday.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/03

Dec Corn: $5.64 – $5.82

March Corn: $5.72 – $5.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.