Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.59 ¼), March 4 ½ cents lower ($5.67 ¾) & May 4 cents lower ($5.72 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.223 M T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.400 M T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Despite decent looking weekly export sales the recent correction with corn prices continues. Prices tried to rally off of the sales report but it did not last very long. Harvest is resuming in the Midwest and recent yield estimates are noticeably higher vs. the average trade guess for next Tuesday’s production/supply-demand report. A recent rebound in the US Dollar and a declining crude oil market added to the selling rationale.

The interior corn basis has taken on a mixed look. Corn processor basis levels read steady to easier while river locations are mixed (depending on who needs corn vs. who doesn’t). The midday posting at the Gulf is ill-defined. Corn spreads leak wider within the current crop year and old crop continues to lose to the new crop.

AS I mentioned the other day $5.40 looks like the first level of legitimate looking support. I would be surprised it we see this level tested ahead of the USDA next Tuesday. I’m not saying the corn market’s not going to go lower but its all about the timing. If the USDA adopts some of the higher yield estimates that we’ve heard recently and the SA early growing conditions continue to show no real threats yes, we will go lower.  Once again it comes down to the timing.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/05

Dec Corn: $5.52 – $5.65

March Corn: $5.61 – $5.74

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