Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($5.51 ½), March 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.61) & May 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.66)

USDA announces 150 K T. corn sold to Colombia

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 563.1 K T. vs. 550 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop ProgressHarvested – 84% vs. 85% expected vs. 78% ave

Last week’s profit taking / liquidation run saw some minor follow today, Monday. Some will tout a resumption of harvest but I think its fear from the possibility of a higher yield on tomorrow’s USDA production update that will outweigh any increase in demand. The average trade guess for production is only for a 0.4 bpa increase coupled with a 20 M bu. decline in the projected carryout. What is rattling some cages are profit estimates from reputable analytical firms suggesting yield increase of 1-2 bpa. Demand ideas have the ethanol grind increasing by 100 M bu., feed demand declining ever-so-slightly and export demand staying unchanged. The world carryout is expected to decline in line with the US carryout.

The technical look at Dec corn suggests some decent looking support in the mid-low $5.40’s. The 50% retracement from the October 13th low to the November 2nd high comes in around the $5.46 level. Once this report has come and gone focus will turn almost completely to demand and the growing conditions in SA. As of this writing I’m not seeing any glaring problems down there.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/09

Dec Corn: $5.40 – $5.63

March Corn: $5.49 – $5.73

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