December Corn closed 5 ¾ cent lower ($5.81), March 9 ½ cents lower ($5.82 ¼) & May 9 ¾ cents lower ($5.85 ¾)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 766.0 K T. vs. 575 k – 1.200 M T. expected
After Friday’s ball of fire higher close corn saw no follow through this Monday. I have to think technical selling was evident today given the inability to take out last Wednesday’s high. First notice day (deliveries are expected to be minimal) coupled with month end liquidation contributed to the selling. It is my opinion that ethanol prices have gotten too high in relation to RBOB prices suggesting stocks will build forcing the grind to be cut back. Weekly export inspections were within the range of expectations but nothing too extreme. The overall strength in the US dollar doesn’t help our competitiveness. Growing conditions in SA (in my opinion) are pretty darn good.
Covid concerns are with us but so far not a lot is known. Symptoms are supposedly not as severe but the virus is thought to be easily transmitted. Initially the fear was lockdowns similar to what we saw in the summer of 2020.
Cash markets remain firm but I am seeing some easing from the processor. River locations feeding down the Gulf run unchanged while maintaining their recent firming. The gulf continues to strengthen as evidenced by the firming of the Dec/March spread (the anticipated lack of deliveries helps).
As far as I’m concerned the best that can be said for the corn charts is that they have entered a new mini trading range between last Wednesday high ($5.96 ¾) and Friday’s low ($5.72). Closes below the Friday low will suggest the interim rally that started on October 14th is over. New highs above the $6.00 level will be needed to sustain the current rally. It’s going to come down to demand vs. growing conditions in SA.
Daily Support & Resistance – 11/30
March Corn: $5.74 – $5.90
July Corn: $5.78 – $5.94
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