March Corn closed ½ cent higher ($6.11), July ¾ cent lower ($6.06 ½) & Dec 2 ½ cents lower ($5.62 ¼)
Weekly Ethanol Grind (01/14) – 1.053 M bpd vs. 1.006M week ago – Stocks – 23.6 M bbls vs. 22.9 M week ago
Weekly Corn Export Sales (01/13) – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected
Flat price corn takes a breather from its recent 26 cent rally. Flat price corn gets caught between surging soybean prices and correcting wheat prices. Bull spreads, however, continue to work noticeably. Thoughts are that the recent rains in Argentina (and forecasts for more) have capped their losses and respectable crop is now expected albeit not as large as originally expected. First season corn in south-southeastern Brazil is still getting impacted by its ongoing hot and dry but that is expected to change in the coming days. Temps are warm to hot but scattered rains are leaking in with more in the forecast for next week. There are some meteorologists trying to suggest the La Nina weather pattern is on its last legs for the primary crop areas of Brazil and Argentina.
The interior corn basis has a mixed to steady look to it today. Decatur, IL is a touch better while an Illinois River location runs a touch easier. All other locations that I track ran unchanged on the day. The recent overall trend with the interior has been easier. The Gulf basis continues to inch higher. Logistic issues related to weather and steady demand are responsible. As I mentioned earlier bull spreads continue to work.
March corn is showing respect for the Dec 28th high ($6.17 ¾) at least for now. With bull spreads continuing to work and crude oil staying relatively strong the bias remains for higher prices. I’m viewing today’s inside day as the pause that refreshes.
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/21
March Corn: $6.00 – $6.20 (?)
July Corn: $5.96 – $6.16 (?)
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