Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($6.25 1/4), July 3 ¼ cents lower ($6.16) & Dec 6 cents lower ($5.66 ¾)

Weekly Ethanol Grind (1/21) – 1.035 M bpd vs. 1.053 M week ago – Stocks – 24.5 M bbls vs. 23.6 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.402 M T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – -165.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected

Old crop corn struggles as it seems it got caught between sinking wheat prices and soybean prices trying to be firm. Weekly export sales were noticeably above expectations. Export shipments came in 300 K T. better vs. what was reported on Monday.  Despite the good export news attempts at price advances were stymied by the dramatic strength in the US dollar.

New crop corn appears to have run into some hedge type selling as it approached the $5.75 level. A minor reversal was registered with its outside day involving new contract highs and closing lower. I won’t call it a “key” reversal as it did not close below the previous day’s low.

Interior cash corn basis reads mixed today as selected river locations saw some minor improvement while processors did some retreating. The Gulf basis was tough to call at its midday posting. Despite the easier flat price bull spreads continue to work.

I’ll call today’s price action as the pause that refreshes. Export demand should continue to be pretty good until we get a better handle on Brazil’s 2nd season corn crop as well as the Argentine corn crop. I’m still viewing the $6.40 area as viable longer term resistance for old crop corn. $6.15 represents the first level of minor support followed by the $6.10 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/28

March Corn: $6.15 – $6.32 (?)

July Corn: $6.06 – $6.23 (?)  

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