Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed ¼ cent higher ($5.91 ½), Dec 2 cents higher ($5.96 ¼) & March 2 ½ cents higher ($6.04 ¼)

Weekly Ethanol Grind (07/29)Production – 1.043 M bpd vs. 1.021 M week ago –  Stocks – 23.4 M bbls vs. 23.3 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Its still hot in the Plains and western edges of the Corn Belt but not as hot has it has been and moisture is leaking into the central and eastern Corn Belt. That had corn prices down early. Technical short covering appeared when it was realized that the gap from last Monday to Tuesday was providing support. The European heatwave is taking its toll on their corn crop but the effects of that won’t come later when we see what kind of exports we are seeing. As of late the recently harvested 2nd season corn crop from Brazil has been stealing our thunder in the global export markets.

I’ll call the interior corn basis mixed today. Improvements come in the form of pennies while declines come in dimes and quarters. The gulf basis is trying to stabilize but I’m not too sure how successful it will be. Corn spreads are still putting carry into the price structure and that’s not sustainingly friendly to the flat price.

Today’s bit of short covering I’ll call as an attempt at consolidation. I still think last week’s Monday to Tuesday gap ($5.84 to $5.89) is support for now.  If this was a true break-away gap wee should reject this level rather quickly.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/04

Dec Corn: $5.82 – $6.10 

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