Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($6.21 ¼), Dec 4 ½ cents higher ($6.18 ½) & March 4 ¼ cents higher ($6.25 ¾)

Weekly Ethanol Grind (08/05)Production – 1.022 M bpd vs. 1.043 M week ago – Stocks – 23.3 M bbls vs. 23.4 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-600 K T. expected

On the surface it looks like corn prices got caught between stronger wheat prices and easing soybean prices. Early buying was attached a bit of a renewed risk-on attitude due to ideas that inflation may not be as rampant as earlier through when the CPI data came in lower than expected. Weather ideas have not changed as heat will continue in the south central Plains while cooling elsewhere all the while maintaining a dry bias. It’s going to come down to if the good conditions in the east can offset the poorer conditions in the west. The USDA will give us an update on yield/crop size and maybe harvested acres. I’m not sure they have enough data at this point in time to give us any radical changes from what the trade is already thinking.

The interior corn basis runs steady to easier in the interior while the gulf ticks up some from where it was at the end of last week. Sept gains on the Dec as it maintains its recent inverse. I think a good portion of this is due to the lack of producer selling as he is still trying to figure out what he has.

A few days ago my thought was the Dec corn was a consolidating affair between $5.80 and $6.30. So far this idea is holding true. Tomorrow we’ll look at the weekly export sales, updated forecasts and whether or not the US Dollar has downside follow through. A weaker US Dollar will go far in competing with Brazilian origin.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/11

Dec Corn: $6.06 – $6.35 

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