Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 8 cents higher ($6.29 ¼), Dec 9 ¼ cents higher ($6.27 ¾) & March 8 ¾ cents higher ($6.34 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 191.8 K old crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected – 191.4 K T. new crop vs. 100-600 K T. expected

Flat price corn grinds higher in anticipation of friendly data from the USDA tomorrow. Weekly export sales were no big deal as new crop sales were disappointing vs. expectations. CONAB (Brazil) lowered its past season corn crop by 1.0 M T. The EU corn crop was lowered by 10.0 M T. this morning. Forecasts suggest another short lived blast of heat this weekend out west followed by noticeably cooler temps. The dry bias will continue despite the cooler temps. The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said the current La Nina is expected to continue, with chances for it to gradually decrease from 86% to 60% during the December-February timeslot. La Nina means dryness for both the US and SA.

Not a lot of changes are being seen with the interior corn basis but what changes that are being seen are lower. The Gulf appears to be a bit lower at its midday posting vs. its recent 2-day strength. Sept corn edges lower vs. the Dec. December corn led the way higher vs. its forward contracts which ties in the idea that the spec trader is anticipating bullish data from the USDA tomorrow.

A bullishly construed report from the USDA when applied to the current technical make-up of December corn will suggest a test of the $6.50-$6.60 level. A bearishly construed report given the recent price advance will suggest December corn will decline to the $5.80 level if not something closer to the $5.70 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/12

Dec Corn: $6.08 – $6.36 (6.45) 

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