Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 10 ½ cents higher ($6.39 ¾), Dec 14 ½ cents higher ($6.42 ¼) & March 14 ½ cents higher ($6.49)

USDA Old Crop Corn US – lowered domestic usage 20 M bu. increased carryout 20 M bu.

USDA New Crop Corn US – increased carryin 20 M bu., lowered harvested acres 100 K, lowered yield 1.6 bpa, lowered production 146 M bu., lowered feed 25 M bu., increased food & seed 5 M bu. (lowered total domestic use 20 M bu.), lowered exports 25 M bu., lowered carryout 82 M bu., STU 9.5% vs. 10.08% last month vs. 10.30% year ago

USDA New Crop Corn World – lowered carryin 440 K T., lowered production 6.29 M T. (US down 3.71 M T., Ukraine up 5.0 M T., EU down 8.0 M T.), total usage down 470 K T., carryout down 6.26 M T. (roughly the same size as the lower production)

Never could figure out why corn traded lower after the report. None of the data was bearish. Sure, the USDA cut demand but that is usually a given when production is cut. The crop is not yet in the bin and the trend in condition ratings is lower. I believe the firm bias should continue. Longs need to be careful if we close below today’s lows.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/15

Dec Corn: $6.28 – $6.52 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.