Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn expired 13 cents higher ($3.60 ½), July closed 12 ¼ cents higher ($3.68 ¾) & Dec 11 ¼ cents higher ($3.87 ¾)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.028 cents a gallon higher ($1.333) & July $0.024 cents higher ($1.340)

Informa (IEG Vantage) suggests corn planted acres at 90.7 million vs. USDA at 92.8 Million – Yield at 177.0 bpa vs. 176.0 USDA

Slower than expected corn planting has corn prices exploding higher Monday night, Tuesday. No doubt about it the spec shorts are on the run. Forecasts remain uncooperative as to getting the crop planted. Come next week “Prevent Plant” will be a first and foremost topic of discussion. I have already seen notable analytical groups tout decreases of planted acres to the tune of 2-3 million. It was interesting to note that the old Informa group touted a higher yield. As long as inclement weather hinders corn planting spec shorts will be biased to additional covering.

The interior corn basis has taken on a very mixed look. The Ohio River is down 12 cents, Burns Harbor improves by 2 cents, Toledo improves by 2 cents, Seneca, IL is 1 cent easier and Davenport, IA is 2 cents better. The Gulf continues to ease from last week’s strength. I’m told riverways are slowly but surely opening up. This may not last too long given some of the forecasts that I’m seeing for this coming weekend and into next week. Bull spreads were working in the corn market mostly in part to the big spec short covering.

I have to ask the myself given some of the longer term weather forecasts I’m seeing – are the funds going to go from a record short to a net long position on this run? I’m not sure we are going to see this happen overnight but I have to think everyone will agree the spec shorts are most definitely on the fence. If and when July corn takes out the $3.75 level it would not surprise me to see $3.85-$3.90 in relatively short order.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/15

July Corn: $3.62 – $3.75 ($3.83)  

Dec Corn: $3.81 – $3.94 ($4.01)

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