Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 9 ½ cents higher ($3.79), Sept 8 ¾ cents higher ($3.87) & Dec 7 ¾ cents higher ($3.96 ½)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.342) & July $0.016 cents higher ($1.352)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 553.3 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – 80.8 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Flat price corn stays strong in anticipation of the big rains that are being forecasted for later this weekend and again mid next week. I have to think speculative short covering continues to be the majority of the buying. A big question that needs to be answered in the short term; how much corn was planted this week? Was it an additional 20%, 25% or 30%? Most feel that work through most of the Corn Belt will come to a halt sometime this weekend and be shut down through most of next week. Old crop corn weekly export sales were deemed decent vs. expectations but still not market making; new crop was nothing to write home about.

I’m not seeing any changes of note in the interior corn basis. I am hearing of some old crop corn moving on the rally. The Gulf basis hasn’t been doing much for the past 4 days. Spreads continue to show a bullish bias which I think is more short covering than anything else. We have to remember the big spec shorts trade in the nearby so when they cover their buying is up front.

Both July corn and Dec corn keep bumping up against major downtrend line resistance. Its one thing to anticipate the inclement weather it’s another to actually see its damage. It will be interesting to see just how afraid the spec shorts will be going home on Friday. Worst case scenario for Friday is an inside day of today.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/17

July Corn: $3.74 – $3.82 ($3.86)  

Dec Corn: $3.92 – $3.99 ($4.03)

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