Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.94 ¼), Sept 6 cents higher ($4.02 ¾) & Dec 6 cents higher ($4.10 ½)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.012 cents a gallon higher ($1.392) & July $0.012 cents higher ($1.400)

We see another round of new highs for the current rally but now we are also seeing a bit of volatility leak into the intra-day trade. This is not out of the norm. As volatility rises with the rally intra-day swings will become a bit more commonplace. The bottomline is that forecasters continue to suggest more excessive moisture will plague the Corn Belt at least through a good part of next week. This in turn should work to keep the corn market relatively firm for the next number of days at least until we see some forecasts of sustained clearing. In the meantime analysts will be working hard trying to figure out just how many corn acres will we lose and what will the impact be on yield.

I continue to see a mixed look with the interior corn basis. The Ohio River is up another 1 cent, Decatur, IL up 4 cents, Cedar Rapids down 3 cents, Toledo down 4 cents and Council Bluffs down 4 cents. It seems cash corn sales, both old crop and new crop, have increased dramatically with the rally. July/Sept traded into 7 cents and then traded back out to 8 ¾. July/Dec traded into 13 ¼ cents then traded back out to 16 ¾ cents. The Gulf continues to edge higher. If I didn’t know better the push here is about trying to secure additional bushels just in case river problems crop up once again given the recent rains around as well as the forecasts calling for more over the near term.

The 14-day RSI for July corn is 70.77 and for December 72.25. Yes, we are approaching overbought but these numbers are not to the point where one considers not chasing a further rally. The little bit of intra-day volatility we saw today should act as “heads-up” that the market will not continue to go straight up without some intra-day or inter-day corrections scattered about. With this said the nearest decent looking minor support level for July corn is $3.80 to $3.75 and something closer to $3.98 down to $3.93 for December corn

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/22

July Corn: $3.80 – $4.00  

Dec Corn: $3.98 – $4.15 ½

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