Sept Corn closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($3.36 ¼), Dec 2 cents lower ($3.50 ½) & March 2 ¼ cents lower ($3.62 ¾)
October Chgo Ethanol closed 0.009 cents a gallon higher ($1.274), Nov 0.007 cents higher ($1.282)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 774.2 K T. old crop (2018-19) vs. 800 K – 1.200 M T. expected – no new crop (2019-20) vs. none expected
USDA announces 142.9 K T. of corn sold to Costa Rica
After a brief attempt at stabilization late Wednesday, overnight, flat price Dec corn sags to new contract lows on Thursday. May forward holds at previous lows but that’s due to spreads increasing the amount of carry within the price structure. Weekly export sales were below expectations. Given what the USDA had to say on Wednesday, a continuing imbalance of supply vs. demand, there is little reason for the corn market to mount any sort of a sustainable rally at this time. I will admit that the trade on Thursday appeared to reflect some scale down end-user pricing. Unfortunately it seems the end-user interest is willing to let the market come to him; he’s not going to the market.
With the exception of an ethanol processor in Linden, IN, all interior basis locations are on the defensive. The Gulf sags as well. So here we have it – both basis and futures working lower. You won’t find a much more bearish scenario than this.
So where is the low going to come in? Weekly charts (based off of the nearby) suggest $3.30 followed by $3.20. The most recent effort to correct in Dec corn measures to $3.41. The problem I’m having is that once a low has been established I’m fearful the market will just sit there. Expect a grinding type sideways to lower trade going forward.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/14
Dec Corn: $3.47 – $3.54
March Corn: $3.59 – $3.66
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.