Dec Corn closed 9 ½ cents higher ($3.65 ¾), March 9 ¾ cents higher ($3.77 ¾) & July 9 cents higher ($3.90 ¼)
October Chgo Ethanol closed 0.007 cents a gallon higher ($1.262), Nov 0.009 cents higher ($1.276)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.344 M T. vs. 1.000-1.250 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Conditions & Progress – 69% GE vs. 69% expected vs. 63% year ago – Harvested – 26% vs. 26% expected vs. 17% 5-year average
FC Stone suggests the national corn yield is 182.7 bpa vs. the USDA at 181.3. Total production at 14.940 billion bu. vs. the USDA 14.827 – it appears they are using the USDA harvested acres of 81.8 million
Speculator short covering sets the higher tone from the Sunday night get-go as the flat price never traded lower. The trade wants to view the completed trade deals between Canada and Mexico (we really don’t export that much corn to Canada) as friendly. We have a relatively wet forecast for the next 10 days which is viewed as friendly. Underlying all of this is an inflationary view of the US economy which has the public buying “commodities” in general. Weekly export sales were deemed as quite solid. The US will continue as one of the primary corn suppliers to the World, if not the primary supplier, until SA supplies become available months from now.
For the past week most interior cash corn locations remain on the defensive as far as their basis is concerned. The Gulf however appears to be showing some improvement. Spreads are showing a bit of a narrowing bias. Dec, March and May are all gaining on the July forwards. How much of this is tied to the front end short covering vs. the solid demand remains to be seen.
The flip-flop (down hard on Friday – up hard on Monday) keeps the corn charts in a positive mode. The test will come on the next production update October 11th. We’ll see a slightly higher carry-in, yield remains up in the air (plus or minus a small amount) and demand could easily show some improvements. For the time being the speculative shorts appear to be on the run.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/02
Dec Corn: $3.59 – $3.70
March Corn: $3.71 – $3.82
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.