Dec Corn closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.64 ¾), March 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.76 ¾) & July 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.89 ¾)
October Chgo Ethanol expires unchanged ($1.305), Nov closes 0.009 cents a gallon lower ($1.310)
USDA announces 230.0 K T. of corn sold to Japan
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.015 million bpd vs. 1.036 million bpd last week – Stocks – 23.4 million bbls vs. 22.6 million bbls last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.000-1.600 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Other than the USDA export sales announcement it was a slow news day. With both wheat and soybeans sagging on the day the corn market just didn’t have enough of its own to go it alone on the upside. Losses weren’t great as forecasts for excessive moisture for a good portion of the Corn Belt lent indirect support. Tomorrow is export sales day; recent sales & shipment data has been pretty decent so we’ll see if tomorrow’s data can provide a spark to get Dec corn over the $3.70 technical resistance point and then challenge the better congestive type resistance at $3.75.
Cash markets have taken on a mixed look vs. recent advertised basis levels. some processors are pushing for ownership while others continue to back off. River locations have the same look; some are backing off while others are pushing. It all comes down to who needs corn vs. those that don’t. The Gulf appears to be holding its own. Corn spreads ran unchanged out to July while the current crop year loses to the new crop.
I’m calling Wednesday’s corn price action “the pause that refreshes”. We know demand for US corn is good. We know harvest is going to come to halt if recent wet forecasts are correct. We know in some areas rainfall will be excessive. What we don’t know if there will be yield loss. Next week, the 11th, the USDA will update production, supply-demand data. Based on the quarterly stocks data this year’s carryin should increase. Most feel the yield projection will be bumped up a bit. The wild card will be if the USDA hikes demand. For what it is worth the uptrend that started in mid-September remains intact. Any daily downtrends that were place dating back to late May, early June have fallen by the wayside.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/04
Dec Corn: $3.62 – $3.70 ($3.75)
March Corn: $3.74 – $3.82 ($3.87)
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