Dec Corn closed 1 cent lower ($3.72 ¼), March 1 ½ cents lower ($3.83 ¾) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.97 ½)
Dec Chgo Ethanol closed $0.021 cents a gallon lower ($1.276), Jan $0.018 cents lower ($1.299)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.068 million bpd vs. 1.059 million last week – Stocks – 23.2 million bbls vs. 22.7 million last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Flat price corn does some minor backing and filling of its recent interim rally of 12 cents. Tomorrow the USDA will update production and both US and World Supply-Demand. Trade guestimates suggest the yield will drop 0.7 bpa, harvested acres down 18 K and carryout down 40 million bu. The World carryout guesstimate is down 530 K T. I don’t think the USDA will do much with domestic US demand as exports have been no big deal nor have the ethanol grind. I have been advised to be on the alert for a hike in Ukraine corn production to the tune of 2.0 M T.
The interior corn basis if not steady is higher especially along the river. Corn spreads involving the Dec contract have been inching in. Late last week the Dec/March spread sat at a 12 ½ cent carry; today it traded into 11 ½ cents. This appears to be about light movement and cheap freight. March forward spreads have done very little.
Charts don’t know we have a big USDA report coming. The big picture on the charts is a broad trading range affair that is featuring a triangle formation; a succession of lower highs and lower highs. Whether or not the USDA gives us something to break us out of this pattern remains to be seen. FYI – earlier this morning I saw statements from the Chinese National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) suggesting the past few years of Chinese corn production has been grossly understated. I point this out just in case the USDA adopts these ideas as it would really skew the World S&D’s.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/08
Dec Corn: $3.60 ($3.55) – $3.80 ($3.85)
Mch Corn: $3.71 ½ ($3.66 ½) – $3.91 ½ ($3.96 ½)
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