Dec Corn closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.73 ½), March 1 ½ cents higher ($3.85 ¼) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.99 ¼)
Dec Chgo Ethanol closed $0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.269), Jan $0.007 cents lower ($1.292)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 701.5 K T. old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Highlights of the USDA Corn Report – US – lowers yield 1.8 bpa leads to a reduction in production 152 million bu. – domestic usage was lowered by 50 million bu. (feed), exports were lowered 25 million bu. – carryout came down 77 million bu. – World – multiple year revisions to Chinese production had the carryout projection rising by 148.16 M T. – take the Chinese data out of the mix and the World carryout comes down 830 K T.
The trade went into the USDA report wanting to be long. The US data goosed the market higher while the World data prompted a 13 cent break off of that initial rally. Once the trade realized the World data had been skewed by the Chinese revisions the flat price came marching back to the plus side. As long as the US carryout is biased to grind lower the spec trade will be inclined to own corn. I don’t think we have a massive rally coming unless SA runs into problems. As of this writing CONAB (Brazil) is suggesting corn production will increase by 10.0 M T. over last year and Argentine production will increase by 10.5 M T. over last year.
The recent run higher with the river basis is starting to abate. Most river locations that I follow are reporting a lower basis on Thursday. Processors in the eastern Midwest continue to reach for corn as do processors in the far west. Processors in the central Midwest appear to be standing pat. The Wednesday night Gulf posting showed some easiness. Corn spreads within the current crop year ran fractionally softer on the day while old crop loses noticeably to the new crop.
Daily price charts show today’s rally testing the October 15th interim high and then falling back. Yesterday I talked about the corn market being in a broad trading range that was featuring an interim triangulation (coiling). Today’s high took out that downtrend line but the close failed to confirm a breakout. With that said the trading range affair lives on.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/09
Dec Corn: $3.68 – $3.78
Mch Corn: $3.80 – $3.90
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