Nov Soybeans expire 7 ½ cents lower ($9.71), Jan closes 1 ¾ cents lower ($9.84 ¼) and March 2 cents lower ($9.92 ½)
Dec Meal closes $2.1 higher ($309.9), Jan $1.9 higher ($312.1) and March $1.6 higher ($313.8)
Dec Bean Oil closes 49 pts lower ($33.95), Jan 48 pts lower ($34.18) and March 49 pts lower ($34.40)
USDA announces 324 K T. soybeans sold to China; 132 K T. soybeans sold to unknown
Weekly soybean Export Inspections – 2.785 M T. vs. 2.500-2.800 M T. expected
Soybean prices manage to finish only modestly lower after 3-week lows were registered earlier in the session. Meal prices managed modest gains on the day; most of the gain can be attributed to the further liquidation of long bean oil/short meal spreads. Speculative Chinese liquidation of the soy complex was the initial rationale for the lower prices seen earlier in the day. Bean oil stays under the gun due the spread liquidation, flat price liquidation and most of all sinking palm oil prices. Rumors abound around Chinese regulators trying to bring rampant speculation in their markets under control. This had spilled over into the US soy complex Friday morning. Then again it’s hard to ignore the ongoing demand for US soybeans.
The interior cash soybean market ran mostly steady on the day; one location a touch better, another location a touch easier. The underlying trend, however, reads better now that harvest has come and gone. Despite the big export inspections and sales Gulf values are still under the gun due to low freight costs. Nov beans expired with barely a whimper. Jan forward spreads scratched and clawed their way to fractional gains on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain in the dumper and that holds true for export values as well. Despite this meal spreads firmed on the day. I’m thinking the flat price strength has buoyed the spreads.
For what is worth the USDA is suggesting the US soybean harvest has reached 97% completion. This compares to the norm of 95%. Trade ideas were 97% completed.
Flat price Jan beans are trying to suggest we’ve gone low enough for now as we were not able to penetrate the Sunday night lows. I’m not sure the rally can go anywhere of substance as the supply-demand data still suggests an imbalance favoring the supply side of the equation. Growing conditions in SA appear to be pretty good. Brazil talks about possibly having some beans for export by late December, early January. Dec meal holds the lows we saw one week ago Friday. Despite this the immediate daily trend still read lower. I’m still thinking Dec bean oil can realize some support against the $33.50 level. With all of this said (and maybe I’m wrong) I get the idea the rate of descent throughout the bean complex is starting to slow and we should see some attempts at consolidation. The “however” is that rallies are still supposed to be sold.
Jan Beans: $9.75 ($9.65) – $9.95 ($10.03) Dec Meal; $306.00 – $312.0 ($314.5) Dec Bn Oil: $33.75 ($33.50) – $34.50
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