Soybeans Commentary


Just My Opinion

Jan soybeans close 10 cents higher ($10.56), March 10 cents higher ($10.64 ½) and July 10 ½ cents higher ($10.75)
Dec Meal closes $5.1 higher ($325.9), Jan $5.1 higher ($328.2) and March $5.2 higher ($330.8)
Dec Bean Oil closes 5 pts higher ($36.71), Jan 3 pts higher ($36.97) and March 4 pts higher ($37.24)
Weekly soybean Export Inspections – 2.090 M T. vs. 1.800-2.100 M T. expected
Soybeans trade up, down all around. At one point last night Jan beans were 19 cents higher. At one point during the day session Jan beans were down 3 ½ cents. Between this range I saw a number 6-8 cent swings during the session; both at night and during the day. I have to think the rallies are speculatively driven and the breaks are commercially driven. Weekly export inspections came in at the high end of expectations. I’ve heard some suggest that the recently stout inspections will begin to tail off as we move through December and into January. The weather in SA remains okay for now. Latest forecasts talk about some drying after recent rainfall but nothing extreme/extended is being noted. At one point during the day bean oil was the product leader (higher palm prices) but as the day went on bean meal assumed the leadership role. It was the leadership role of the bean meal market that brought the soybean market back to finish double digits higher on the day.
Elevators and processors show a steady to firm soybean basis. River locations involved with export take their cue from the Gulf which is easier. Soybean spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day within the current crop year while gaining on the 2017/18 crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to look for buyers. Meal spreads ran like soybean spreads; mostly unchanged in the current crop year while gaining on the next crop year. Overall the trends in both the bean and meal spreads continue to be steady to lower.


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