Corn Commentary
Dec Corn closes ½ cent lower ($3.49 ½), March ½ cent lower ($3.62 ¾) and July unchanged ($3.79 ¾)
November Chgo Ethanol closes unchanged ($1.480), Dec 0.010 cents lower ($1.452)
No USDA reports today – Columbus Day holiday.
It was a two-sided trade on Monday with fractionally easier closes. Weekend harvest pressure was lacking due to sizeable rains in the west and modest rains elsewhere. There will be another rain event this week and then clearing. The north northwestern reaches of the Corn Belt are forecasted to see a frost/freeze event midweek. Volatility continues to be quite low. The trade is a bit leery of what the USDA may have to say on Thursday when they update production. Average trade guesses are looking for a slight hike in harvested acres, a fractional increase in yield and a very slight hike in production. Despite the minor increases in production the projected carryout is slated to come down due to a smaller carryin and a hike in feed use. I’ve attached a table of estimates for your convenience.
Interior cash prices are reading steady to higher. Processor bids are mostly unchanged while locations involved for export are reporting better bids due to declines in freight rates. The declines in freight rates have Gulf prices on the defensive. Corn spreads ran steady to easier out to Sept ’18. Beyond that we see 2018-19 prices lower due to the idea we may see an increase in corn acres next year.
Flat price corn remains range bound and is expected to stay that way into the USDA report on Thursday. Trading range lows may get tested prior to the Thursday report but are expected to stand in.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/10
Dec Corn: $3.46 – $3.54
March Corn: $3.59 – $3.67
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.