Corn Commentary
Dec Corn closes ¼ cent lower ($3.49 ¼), March unchanged ($3.62 ¾) and July ½ cent lower ($3.79 ¼)
November Chgo Ethanol closes 0.005 cents a gallon higher ($1.420), Dec 0.005 cents higher ($1.409)
CONAB suggests the Brazilian new crop corn production will be 92.2 – 93.6 M T. vs. 97.8 last year vs. USDA at 95.0 new crop
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 524.1 K T. vs. 650-850 K T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Ratings & Progress – 64% GE (+1%) vs. 62% expected vs. 73% year ago – 22% harvested vs. 27% expected vs. 37% 5-year average
Not much of trade on Tuesday; barely a 3 cent range. There was an attempt at some short covering early in the day session but it went nowhere and the balance of the day was spent easing back lower. It seems the trade appears to be content to just sit here and see what the USDA has to say on Thursday. New news is slight – most of it is the interior basis (river locations mostly) bouncing back from last week’s sharp declines. Little mention was given to the lower Brazilian new crop corn estimate as it is so early in the season. Weekly export inspections were below guesstimates but then again no one was looking for much. SA corn from last season still appears to be getting the lion’s share of the global trade.
As I mentioned river basis is bouncing back as river freight continues to come down and former movement remains slight. Gulf prices continue to ease form last week’s spike higher. Corn spreads ran mostly steady with minor fractional improvement.
Flat price corn has been spinning its wheels going nowhere fast since early September. We are currently favoring the low end of the trading range. I have the thought we should see better attempts at short covering given the large speculative short position but so far the participants in the trade appear content to keep the market depressed. If we get the Dec flat price above Monday’s high, $3.51 ¾, it may spur some last minute short covering.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/11
Dec Corn: $3.46 – $3.54
March Corn: $3.59 – $3.67
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.