Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary
March closes 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.65 ¼), July 3 ½ cents lower ($3.79 ¾) and Dec 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.92 ¾)
March Chgo Ethanol closes 0.6 cents a gallon lower ($1.485), April 0.3 cents lower ($1.507)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.022 million bpd vs. 1.034 million last week – Stocks – 22.9 million bbls vs. 23.1 million last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Flat price corn has been sagging for the past three days. Incentive for ownership for the near term remains lacking. Given recent trade guesstimates for CONAB and the USDA tomorrow nothing looks too exciting for those that want to have a friendly bias. If one follows the daily trading fund activity more than half of what was bought on the 28th and the 1st has been liquidated.
Interior cash corn markets have taken on a mixed look vs. recent postings. River locations show a slightly higher bias (Seneca, IL was down 2 cents while Davenport, IA is up 11 cents over the past 2 days). Processors are no better than steady. The recent minor firming action at the Gulf saw some of that given back today. The May forward corn spreads ran fractionally weaker on the day.
I’m viewing $3.75 as the “make it or break it” point for July corn. A similar point for Dec corn is $3.88. If these points are taken out the corn market will be hard pressed to mount a sustaining rally until Mother Nature comes into focus. As much as I would like to say the flat price continues to honor suspected interim support the recent price action leaves a lot to be desired considering the buying we saw on the 28th and the 1st. Chartists will continue to tout the interim double top that was scored on the 16th and the 28th.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/09
July Corn: $3.76 – $3.84
Dec Corn: $3.89 ½ – $3.97

 

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