Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.75), Dec 1 ½ cents lower ($3.88) and March 1 ½ cents lower ($3.98 ¾)
August Chgo Ethanol closes 0.008 cents a gallon lower ($1.561), Sept 0.010 cents lower ($1.562)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.109 M T. vs. 850 K – 1.010 M T. expected
Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 64% GE vs. 64% expected vs. 76% year ago – 40% silking vs. 47% 5-year average
The Sunday night, Monday session for corn was a very choppy trade; lows were made Sunday night, highs were made midday Monday. The trade is expecting to see marginal declines in national conditions. There is going to be some moisture around this week depending upon your location – the best chances for the western Corn Belt are over the next couple of days, the Corn Belt should see some rain later this week. Temps will heat up big time in the west after the forecasted rain moves out. The eastern Corn Belt will heat up mid-week but as of this writing I’m not see anything too extreme. As we move through the week the trade will live and die every forecast update. Coming into today forecasts for next week and beyond showed a “hot & dry” bias for a good portion of the Corn Belt – midday updates showed better moisture potential for the longer term time frame. The latest from the NWS suggests a “hot & dry” bias Illinois west on both its 6-10 day as well as its 8-14 day forecasts. One has to remember that midday updates are based on the GFS model (American). The European model (ECMWF) does not have midday updates. The European model, in my opinion, has a better track record. This afternoon’s 8-14 day forecast from the NWS is comprised of 30% American and 70% European.
Interior cash corn markets show a mixed look on Monday despite a slowdown in movement. The Ohio River looks easier while the Illinois River appears to be a bit better. Processors continue to show the best bid structure. The Gulf continues to firm from the lows we saw early last, late in the prior week. Nearby corn spreads don’t do much but corn spreads overall continue to show a widening bias.
The technical make-up of the corn market clearly shows the price is in a downtrend. The shorter term look is one consolidation with a slight bias to correct higher. I found it interesting that Monday’s high stumbled at last Friday’s high. Since the interim lows seen late last week we have yet to challenge any decent looking resistance. As of this writing the first level of decent looking interim resistance is the $3.94-$3.96 level. Until I see daily momentum indicators turn around I have to think we are supposed to be selling rallies.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/18
Sept Corn: $3.68 – $3.81
Dec Corn: $3.82 – $3.94

 

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