Soybeans Commentary


Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 5 ¾ cents lower ($9.56), July 4 cents lower ($9.66 ¼) and Nov 2 ¾ cents lower ($9.64)
May Meal closes $2.7 lower ($311.1), July $2.8 lower ($314.9) and Dec $2.5 lower ($316.5)
May Bean Oil closes 20 pts higher ($32.27), July 21 pts higher ($32.49) and Dec 20 pts higher ($32.95)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 381.4 K T. old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – 70.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 137.1 K T. old crop vs. 40-175 K T. expected – 24.7 K T. new crop vs. 0-40 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – 29.0 K T. old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected
CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 113.0 M T. vs. 110.2 M T. (April) vs. USDA at 111.6 M T.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) – suggests their soybean crop is 57.5 M T. vs. previous estimate of 56.5 M T. vs. USDA at 57.0
Soybeans and soybean meal tried to reject Wednesday’s interim sell signal early but to no avail. Weekly export sales were deemed solid given how SA is supposed to be taking over the export market for the current time frame. Bean oil caught a bid from inter-market spreading against the declining bean and meal markets. Overall the entire complex has not sustained any moves beyond their recent trading ranges.
Interior cash soybean locations, processors and elevators, see unchanged levels on Thursday.  River locations continue to show a firm bias. The Gulf, however, reads easier vs. Wednesday but unchanged vs. the beginning of the week. Soybean spreads ran easier on the day. The infamous July/Nov spread appears to be on the verge of going to a carry. The cash meal basis has been ugly for some time now – it got uglier today. Meal spreads inched wider on the day.
The technical picture for the complex has not changed. July beans are still in a month old upflag – Wednesday’s high challenged the top side and today’s low came close to challenging the low side. The meal market is not much different; more sideways vs. a flagging effort. I may be out in left field with my ideas that we have bearish looking price formations but for the life of me I cannot come up with a rationale that says I’m supposed to be a buyer vs. being a seller.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/12
July Beans: $9.56 – $9.76
July Meal; $310.0 – $318.0
July Bn Oil: $32.00 – $33.00


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