Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 7 ¼ cents higher ($9.30 ¾), Aug 7 ¼ cents higher ($9.34 ¼) and Nov 4 cents higher ($9.35 ¾)
July Meal closes $3.8 higher ($304.9), Aug $3.7 higher ($306.4) and Dec $3.0 higher ($309.1)
July Bean Oil closes 3 pts lower ($31.36), Aug 5 pts lower ($31.48) and Dec 8 pts lower ($31.91)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected; new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 8-25 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-12 K T. expected
Spec shorts are covering here too but to a lesser extent as inter-market spreading, long feed grains vs. short oilseeds, keeps the complex from running away. I continue to hear stories about soybean emergence having problems in many areas. If true this would suggest the soybean ratings on Monday (first of the season) won’t look too spiffy. The USDA will update both old crop and new crop supply-demand projections on Friday. Trade guesses suggest only a few minor changes. My thought is that the old crop carryout should come down more than expected as sales on the books have exceeded USDA projections by 2.7 M T.
Processors continue to stand in for beans when compared to other interior locations. Board
TEF – Just My Opinion – June 7th
crush margins remain fairly buoyant. The Gulf market for beans continues to have a soft look when compared to one week ago. Soybean spreads ran unchanged within the old crop while old crop gains on the new crop. I believe this is a result of the flat price short covering. The meal basis still stinks but spreads ran similar to the soybean spreads – it’s all about the flat price short covering.
Speculative short covering has made the meal and soybean market over the past few days. The rally has the soybean and soybean meal markets tapping at the low side of first level minor resistance. For the next couple of days updated weather forecasts will hold sway over the market dictating whether or not the current attempt to rally follows through. I’m not ready to chase the rally but will focus on buying breaks to recently established minor support levels. We are not that far off of recent lows so any buying of breaks will be deemed relatively low risk. Just My Opinion.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/08
July Beans: $9.16 – $9.35 ($9.40)
July Meal; $300.0 – $309.0
July Bn Oil: $31.10 – $31.80
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.