Wheat Commentary
July Chgo wheat closes 2 cents lower ($4.43), Sept 2 cents lower ($4.57 ¼) and Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.79)
July KC Wheat closes ½ cent higher ($4.57 ½), Sept ¾ cent higher ($4.75) and Dec 1 cent higher ($4.99 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected
Mpls wheat finally sees some profit taking after trading 17-18 cents higher on Wednesday. As I noted the other day it was beginning to flirt with overbought and after being 17-18 cents higher earlier in the day it was in a legitimate overbought status. Now all we have to figure out is whether or not the rains that moved through the spring areas earlier this week were of the crop saving varieties. I have people who tell me that some of the spring areas in S. Dakota are beyond repair. The profit taking in Mpls had a domino effect on KC and Chgo. Harvest is rolling in Kansas and just beginning in some of the SRW areas. As of this writing I’m not willing to say the wheat market is over but rather moving into a minor corrective phase.
Interior basis levels for SRW have taken on a mixed look – Decatur, IN drops its basis by 10 cents while the Ohio River raises it’s by 7 cents. the Gulf is showing very little interest in SRW. Chgo spreads ran steady to fractionally softer. The interior basis for HRW doesn’t do much nor should it harvest happening. The Gulf continues to bid for HRW as it shows its best basis bid dating back to late February. KC spreads lost only fractional ground.
Chgo wheat stumbles as it approaches last week’s highs. KC wheat stumbles as it approaches the early May highs and Mpls corrects back from new contract highs. I won’t call the Mpls move a key reversal as it was not an outside day and only one of its listed contracts finished lower and that was on by a ½ cents. I’m content in saying we are just entering a corrective phase.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/15
July Chgo Wheat: $4.34 – $4.50
July KC Wheat: $4.48 – $4.62
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