Wheat Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary
July Chgo wheat closes 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.53 ¼), Sept 3 ½ cents higher ($4.69) and Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.91 ¼)
July KC Wheat closes 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.57 ¼), Sept 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.75 ¾) and Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.97 ¼)
Mpls wheat zooms higher on the lower than expected spring wheat ratings. Chgo and KC follow but to a much lesser extent. The 14-day RSI for Sept Mpls wheat is 85.8 while the 14 week RSI on weekly charts stands at 80.3 – does anyone have the nerve to stand in front of this market? Back to Chgo and KC – Tuesday’s price action was just an inside day of Monday’s break suggesting the correction in these two markets may not be over yet. Ongoing harvest in the winter wheat areas (both HRW & SRW), I believe, are keeping these two markets in check. Going forward I believe both Chgo and KC have the potential to move higher but I think its going take noticeable drawdowns in the global sector and we won’t see those updated until July 12th.
Interior cash wheat markets are quiet with the ongoing winter harvest. Chgo spreads see Sept and Dec see minor gains on March forwards. Similar spread action was seen in KC. If I ever see these spreads start to turn higher they will act as an alert to a higher sustained flat price.
Both Chgo and KC wheat markets suggest they are continuing in a corrective phase that started last week. Give me another 10 cents or so lower we’ll look to establish some ownership. Until then I’m just watching.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/28
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.58 – $4.78
Sept KC Wheat: $4.65 – $4.88

 

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