Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 9 ½ cents lower ($4.00) Dec 7 ¼ cents lower ($4.28) and March 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.51 ½)
Sept KC Wheat closes 7¾ cents lower ($3.96 ¾), Dec 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.25 ½) and March 6 ½ cents lower ($4.44)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 670.7 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected
Weekly Spring Wheat Progress – 76% harvested vs. 74% expected vs. 66% 5-year average
Egypt announces an overnite tender for optional origin wheat
So much for the idea that wheat prices last week were in the process of trying to realize lows. Chgo wheat registers a new contract low by ¼ cent and registers a new contract low close. KC wheat pumps out new contract lows by 1 ¾ cents and registers a new contract low close by ¼ cents. The story is the same as it has been for the past number of weeks – ample world supplies. I do find it interesting that the value of the US Dollar has been unable to generate any new market making business. The US Dollar vs. the Euro is now at a low level not seen since early January 2015. I do believe that US wheat is competitive from a flat price point of view but loses ground due to freight costs. Once US values become competitive (freight included) prices should be able to begin a steady to firm trend. Until then…..
Cash markets are quiet whether it is for domestic use or for export. Spreads ran softer on the day led by the 1st notice day (August 31st) September contract.
Late last week I was trying to turn positive to the price action in Chgo and KC. After Monday’s price action that idea is now gone (at least 90% gone).
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/25
Dec Chgo Wheat: ??? – $4.40
Dec KC Wheat: ??? – $4.36
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