Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinioin

July Soybeans closed 90 ¼ cents higher ($14.50), August 90 ¼ cents higher ($14.30) & Nov 86 ½ cents higher ($13.99)

July Soybean Meal closed $27.1 higher ($375.5), August $27.1 higher ($377.5) & Dec $27.9 higher ($381.7)

July Soybean Oil closed 101 pts higher ($66.16), August 126 pts higher ($63.42) & Dec 147 pts higher ($62.76)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100 +300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 1.000-2.000 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 125-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 125-275 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

USDA Quarterly Soybean Stocks – 767 M bu. vs. 787 M bu. expected

USDA Soybean Acreage Update – 87.555 M acres vs. 88.955 M expected vs. 87.600 M in March

Nothing bearish about the quarterly soybean stocks as they come in 20 M bu. less than expected. This suggests the old crop carryout, new crop carryin will be staying tight looking. Acres were the big shocker. Not only did we not get the increase everyone had been expecting but acres actually contracted from the March figure by 45 K acres. For what it is worth; Minnesota is #3 in soybean acres, N. Dakota #4 and S. Dakota #7. These three states combine for just over 20 M acres planted to soybeans and currently they show some of the poorest condition ratings. Yes, soybeans are made in August but so far forecasts don’t look too bright for the Dakotas. The bottom line here is we don’t have enough acres planted to soybeans to stave off another year just as tight as the past year. Soybeans out of the US are going to stay high priced for some time to come.

As we move forward weather will become the primary focus now that acres are set for the time being. The latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day from the NWS suggests the Dakotas staying warm and dry, Minnesota & Iowa staying warm while mixed as to moisture and Illinois east warm and wet.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/01

Nov Beans: $13.80 – $14.40

Dec Meal: $372.0 – $390.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.00 – $64.75

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