March Soybeans closed 8 cents lower ($9.03 ¾), July 8 cents lower ($9.30 ½) & Nov 6 ¾ cents lower ($9.48 ¾)
March Soybean Meal closed $2.2 lower ($303.2), July $2.1 lower ($311.1) & Dec $1.9 lower ($318.0)
March Soybean Oil closed 27 pts lower ($30.09), July 28 pts lower ($30.74) & Dec 26 pts lower ($31.35)
USDA announces 120.0 K T. of soybeans sold to Mexico; 48.0 K T. old crop, 72.0 K T. new crop
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to move along rapidly. The Argentine soybean crop is developing with few recent hiccups and current forecasts offering few if any threats. The price action is suggesting the trade is tiring of waiting for last week’s tout that China will be buying 10.0 M T. of old crop soybeans in an “expeditious” manner. Then again if I was an interested buyer and it was being advertised as such leading towards front-running I would probably take a step back. If this is the stance that is being taken I would think another 10 cents down would attract my attention. Soybean meal takes out last week’s lows by a very marginal amount but does register a new low close dating back a couple of years. Bean oil, after Monday’s challenge of the Feb 7th interim high, continues to liquidate. Monday’s high in May bean oil to today’s low represents a 101 pt break.
Not much change is being seen with the soybean processor basis. The interior river basis is showing slight improvement vs. Monday’s downturn. The Gulf continues to stay strong. Old crop soybean spreads ran unchanged out to August while old crop continues to ease to the new crop. 1st Notice Day fears for soybeans do not appear as apparent compared to what’s going on in the corn and wheat markets. the rail meal basis sees a very slight improvement but overall all offers to sell soybean meal remain depressed looking. Meal spreads saw little if any changes until you got out to the new crop; old crop ease vs. the new crop.
Will May soybeans hold last week’s low ($9.07)? Failure to do so would probably attract some new selling. The new low close in soybean meal has absolutely nothing positive to it. Bean oil appears to have once again resumed its liquidation phase. Without any market making export business the path of least resistance should continue lower.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/27
May Soybeans: $9.07 (?) – $9.28
May Soybean Meal: $305.0 (?) – 312.0
May Soybean Oil: $29.90 – $31.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.