Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed ¼ cent lower ($8.76 ¼), August 1 cent lower ($8.75) & Nov 1 ½ cents lower ($8.79 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.5 lower ($286.5), August $0.5 lower ($288.8) & Dec $0.7 lower ($293.2)

July Soybean Oil closed 17 pts lower ($28.35), August 15 pts lower ($28.55) & Dec 9 pts lower ($29.22)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 254.9 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

USDA says US soybean crop now rated 70% GE (-2%) vs. 71% expected vs. 54% year ago – Planted – 96% vs. 97% expected vs. 93% 5-year average – Flowering – 5% vs. 5% 5-year average

Slightly easier price action was seen in soybeans and products on Monday. Weather considerations were viewed as bearish to the market as were the meager looking export inspections. The trade is still holding out for better Chinese business as we move forward. Today’s sharp break in the US dollar if it continues should act as a catalyst for additional Chinese buying. Please note that any further buying will go towards the new crop.

The only changes that I see with the interior soybean basis are processors backing off from recent bids. Board crush margins remain quite depressed. Basis bids at the Gulf appear to be easier in the nearby time slots; deferred time slots stay firm. Soybean spreads had a very slight bullish bias (fractional) on the day. Offers to cash soybean meal in the interior read steady to slightly lower. Export offers for meal run unchanged. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally weaker.

Nearby soybeans continue to honor the suspected mid-low $8.80’s resistance level. Soybean meal remains in a very tight $8.0 range; just a few dollars above the late May contract lows. On Friday soybean oil registered new highs for the rally that started in late April. Today was just an inside day of Friday which in turns suggests a bias higher for soybean oil prices.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/23

July Soybeans: $8.70 – $8.83

July Soy Meal: $285.0 – $291.0

July Bean Oil: $27.75 – $28.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.