Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 483.3 K T. vs. 350-700 K T. expected
USDA says US soybean crop now rated 68% GE (-3%) vs. 70% expected vs. 54% year ago – Blooming – 48% vs. 40% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 11% vs. 10% 5-year average
It seems like recent weather threats have failed to materialize. Current forecasts are mostly non-threatening. Relationships between China and the US have gone downhill suggesting future purchases by them will come grudgingly at least until Brazil is sold out. Brazil talks about an active soybean loading program through the month of August. It’s my opinion the WH doesn’t care anymore about getting that good deal for the US producer. It makes me wonder if POTUS is giving up on the idea he’s going to be around for second term. Soybean production from the USDA on Friday was a bit less than expected but it was still a big number. Without a weather threat going forward the trade will quickly begin talking about a higher yield and the path of least resistance will be lower.
Chart Talk – November Soybeans – The recent price action suggests the party is over for the bulls. $9.10 on up was considered resistance and now we have a pseudo looking double top at the level. $8.80 was first support and we plowed down through that level with the greatest of ease. The mid-high $8.60’s is the next level of suggested support. $8.85 is now minor resistance followed by the $8.95 level. December Meal – on June 29th the low was $287.5, four days later the high was $308.9. We have now retraced almost $18.0 of that $21.0 rally. I have to think the contract low is now in jeopardy for later this week. Attempts to bounce will be limited to the high $290.0’s, $300.0.
Daily Support & Resistance – 7/14
Aug Soybeans: $8.65 – $8.85
Nov Soybeans: $8.67 – $8.87
Dec Soy Meal: $289.0 – $2.97
Dec Soy Oil: $28.40 – $29.15
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.