Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 5 cents higher ($9.03), Sept 4 ½ cents higher ($8.96 ¾) & Nov 5 cents higher ($9.00)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.1 higher ($288.6), Sept $2.4 higher ($291.4)  & Dec $2.8 higher ($296.9)

August Soybean Oil closed 1 pt higher ($29.93), Sept unchanged ($30.08) & Dec 1 pt lower ($30.53)

USDA announces 132 K T. new crop soybeans sold to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 452.8 K T. vs. 375-600 K T. expected

USDA says US Soybean Crop now rated 69% GE (+1%) vs. 67% vs. 54% year ago – Blooming – 64% vs. 57% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 25% vs. 21% 5-year average

Wishing and hoping for additional Chinese soybean business provides support on attempts to sell off. Soybean oil was the early leader as vegetable oil prices in general remain firm. Strength here soon gave way to an improving meal market and that in turn lent additional support to the soybean market. Weekly export inspections were deemed no big deal. Recent moisture around the Midwest is good for keeping the soybean plant healthy looking but August remains the critical time frame is that is when pods move into their filling stage.

Of the interior Midwest cash soybean locations that I track I’m only seeing one change; Savanna, Il down 3 cents. The Gulf for soybean continues to show a firm tone. Soybean spreads continue to show a tightening bias. The cash market for soybean meal remains quiet. Bear spreads in meal worked out to January then bull spreads took over. Some processors are starting to go into downtime for maintenance to get ready for the new crop in late August, early Sept.

November soybeans continue with their slow grind through suspected resistance, $8.95 to $9.10. Personally I’m not wild about chasing this week old 30 cent rally. Dec soybean oil experiences some profit taking after advancing 200 pts over the past 4 days. As strong as the vegetable oil sector is this is another rally I’m not wild about chasing. Dec soybean meal continues to be a trading range affair between $290.0 and $302.0.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/21

Aug Soybeans: $8.93 – $9.13

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10

Dec Soy Meal: $293.0 – $300.0

Dec Soy Oil: $29.90 – $31.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.