August Soybeans closed 13 ¾ cents lower ($8.83 ¾), Sept 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.79 ¾) & Nov 14 ½ cents lower ($8.81 ¾)
August Soybean Meal closed $3.4 lower ($283.7), Sept $3.5 lower ($285.8) & Dec $4.3 lower ($291.4)
August Soybean Oil closed 14 pts lower ($31.53), Sept 17 pts lower ($31.05) & Dec 27 pts lower ($31.05)
Soybean crop ratings improve to 73% GE. Weather forecasts going forward appear to be beneficial for soybean crop development (pod-filling). Stone X (former FC Stone) suggests national soybean yield is 54.2 bpa. If true this would suggest a crop size of 4.498 billion bu. (4.135 billion in July). The end result of all this was last week’s rally in November beans totally erased. December meal came within $2.0 of its contract before ending with a $2.0 bounce. December bean oil eased from its 3 month highs.
Most interior Midwestern soybean basis levels ran unchanged vs. yesterday. The one exception was Decatur, IN down 3 cents. The Gulf soybean basis stays strong from relatively slow movement. Old crop gains on November while November loses to January forward. The interior offers for cash meal run mostly unchanged while the Gulf market for meal continues to firm. Meal spreads had a firm bias out to December and then bear spreading took over.
December soybean oil registers a minor reversal after scoring new 3 month highs earlier in the day. Bull spreads continue to work old crop to new crop. December meal comes within $2.0 of its contract lows before a minor bounce to finish the day. Nothing friendly about this price action. As long as the trade believes the Stone X yield November soybean are going lower. To wipe out the previous week’s rally in one day is nothing but negative. $8.70 is the next stop on the downside followed by $8.60.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/05
Nov Soybeans: $8.75 ($8.70) – $8.89
Dec Soy Meal: $288.0 – $294.0
Dec Soy Oil: $30.50 – $31.50
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