Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents higher ($8.76 ½), Sept 4 ¼ cents higher ($8.70) & Nov 5 ¾ cents higher ($8.73 ¼)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.2 higher ($282.2), Sept $2.4 higher ($284.4) & Dec $2.8 higher ($289.6)

August Soybean Oil closed 16 pts lower ($31.19), Sept 12 pts lower ($30.73) & Dec unchanged ($30.75)

USDA announces new crop soybean sales – 111 K T. to unknown, 324 K T. to China, 264 K T. to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 635.6 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

US Soybean Crop Ratings – 74% GE (+1%) vs. 72% expected vs. 54% year ago – Blooming – 92% vs. 89% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 75% vs. 68% 5-year average

The USDA announces 699 K T. of new crop soybean export sales. Couple this with better than expected weekly export inspections had prices firming from the overnight weakness. Trade talk has more sales’ announcements coming during the week as we approach the scheduled trade talks on the 15th. There was also a wire story from unnamed sources (Chinese crushers and anonymous traders) that China would be buying 8.0 M T. of soybeans each month during the OND period.

On Wednesday the USDA will give us their first filed survey of the season as to crop size. Most are anticipating a hike in yield of 1-2 bu. bpa. The bigger question is what can the USDA do with the demand side of the equation in an effort to offset some of the hike in yield.

For the time being Nov beans are honoring trend-line support in the mid-low $8.60’s. I’m showing minor resistance almost every 5 cents up. Resistance gets big at $8.90 on up. December soybean meal registered a “key” reversal on Monday – an outside day that involved new contract lows while closing above the previous day’s high. December soybean oil has moved into another minor correction phase following last week’s challenge of the $32.00 level. Something closer to the $30.00 level should prove to be decent support.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/11

Nov Soybeans: $8.65 – $8.80 

Dec Soybean Meal: $286.5 – $293.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.25 – $31.25 

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